Subdued wage growth coupled with robust spending and higher interest rates has left Britons saving the smallest slice of their pay packets since the beginning of the Sixties, a report released on Friday showed.
In a flurry of data examining the UK economy, the Office for National Statistics said that the household saving ratio – the proportion of disposable income not spent by consumers – fell to 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
This was down from 3.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year and is the lowest savings ratio since the start of 1960.
“The fall in the saving ratio for the latest quarter was driven by reduced employers’ special contribution payments into pension funds, following high payments in the previous quarter, a rise in tax and interest payments and higher consumption expenditure,” said the ONS.
For 2006, the savings ratio dropped to 5 per cent from 5.6 per cent the previous year, reflecting “slower growth in gross disposable income set against faster consumption expenditure”.
Analysts said the savings numbers were significant because they suggested household finances are stretched and a drop in consumption may be required to return saving to more normal levels.
“This reinforces our belief that the consumer will have to tighten his belt to some degree over the coming months and spending will consequently be relatively muted going forward, particularly given that he is also facing rising interest rates and increased debt levels,“ said Howard Archer.
However, in the mean time, signs that household spending remains robust is likely to embolden those on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee who see a need to raise the cost of borrowing further still.
The more hawkish on the MPC will also have noted that a measure of inflation, the GDP deflator, was up by 3.2 per cent in the first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, and is at its highest level in more than three years.
This and other data were contained in the ONS report of the Quarterly National Accounts. It confirmed the economy expanded by 0.7 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007, giving growth of 3 per cent on an annual basis.
The ONS also published its “Blue Book”, the annual overhaul of the UK national accounts. The main revision in the report was the inclusion of a new method for measuring investment in software. “This adds £8.3bn, equivalent to 0.6 per cent, to the level of current price GDP in 2006,” said the ONS.
Balance of payments data were also released on Friday. These showed that the City of London helped boost the UK’s trade in services to £8.5bn in the first quarter, the highest on record and equivalent to 2.5 per cent of GDP.
After adding trade in goods, income from abroad and transfers, the current balance of trade gap fell from £14.5bn in the fourth quarter of 2006 to £12.2bn in the first quarter of this year.
Separately, the Bank of England said there were 114,000 mortgage approvals in May, up from 109,000 in April. Last month’s number was softer than the recent six month average of 117,000. But it was above analysts forecasts of about 105,000 and confirms the housing market remains healthy.
Adding to inflationary concerns was another strong reading of the UK’s money supply, a measure whose elevation is causing consternation at the Bank of England. The final calculation of ‘M4’ money supply for May showed an annual increase of 13.9 per cent, said the Bank.